Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
If one operated with simply "par times", in my experience the daily fluctuations would still exist. The danger to basing "figures on past figures", as Beyer noted in an early book ("My $50k Year?"), and the reason I abandoned the "projection method", is the tendency to underestimate the winning figure. My figures from month to month would be unrecognizable. Almost any horse coming back from a few months layoff would show superior figs before I reworked months of charts with pars.
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I mentioned Nick Mordin's work earlier. He deals with this topic extensively and has some really good insights.
