Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
The major knock against Hofburg is that he's the clear 2nd choice.
Sure, he had some traffic trouble that delayed his run in the Derby or he probably would have been closer. But on the flip side both the Ky Derby and Florida Derby were tailor made for a deep closer off very fast paces that compromised the chances of other good horses in those races. I don't think he's so obviously better than any number of other horses in the Belmont that you can look at him and be satisfied with him as a solid 2nd choice. He's one of any number of horses that could pull off an upset if Justify doesn't run his "A" race or they jump up a little at 12F.
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I like him (or
did like him) but for a week now, as more and more jump on especially, it just screams warning: Wise Guy alert.
Apart from that as "superstition" because I'm sure a "Wise Guy" horse occasionally wins (I can't remember the last Triple Crown race where it did though) I always thought that Hofburg was crazy low odds. He should be 5 or 6 at the lowest, and probably 6 to 8 like Vino Rosso. Rosso has more wins and has the rest too, it is just odd for that gut feeling must be going for with Mott here, or the breeding; I can't explain it otherwise.
