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Baseline / Class Pars for Speed Figures
Hey all,
I've been tinkering with creating my own set of speed figures. I'm trying to get all my ducks in a row, and because I know embarassingly little about the creation of speed figures, I've consulted some handicapping books.
The method I imagined was to first create a set of class par times by averaging the results of past races for each class and distance at the track. This was going to be my baseline. I was then going to set the baseline at an arbitrary number (e.g. 100), to which I could add or subtract points based on each races varient.
I've been going through Charles Carroll's Handicapping Speed, and from what I understand, he is very much opposed to using class pars as a baseline. On the contrary, it seems that he prefers using the fastest time set by the fastest horse (e.g. track record) for each distance.
My problem is - how does this help to create a race varient? Knowing that a horse ran a particular distance in a particular time does little to help me compare the running times of two races of identical conditions two weeks apart. How will I be able to tell if the track was running "faster" on either of the times by comparing them to the record? Why wouldn't it be better to compare both of them to the common class par? By comparing them to the track record, aren't I basically just comparing them to each other (only using the track record as an intermediary)?
While I'm here, I have a few more questions I'll throw out, and any help would be greatly appreciated:
For those that create or use speed figures, do you employ a "daily track varient" or a "race varient"? In effect, can Race 2 on a card be run "faster" than "normal," while Race 8 could be "slower"? Or, do you add up all the "fasters" and "slowers" in a card, average them, and then apply that average to each horse's time?
How many historical races are necessary to calculate an accurate class par?
While on that note, I only have a few weeks worth of results charts. Is there anywhere to get free, accurate, information-filled results charts from further back?
Thanks a million in advance
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