Sidebar

[Jeff P]

Based on conversations I've had with a few (not all) of the whale teams over the years, my takeaway is they have one goal:

Grind out profits by consistently betting an appropriate percentage of total stake on overlays many thousands of times over and over again each year.

Final Win pool size for the Preakness was roughly $14.65 million.

Of that $1.77 million was bet on Early Voting (5-1.)

Assume for the sake of argument:

1. With half the field loaded into the gate, the largest of the five or six whale teams saw Early Voting at 5-1 as a healthy 15% overlay. (EV = 1.15)

2. Bankroll on Preakness Day for that team was $5 million.

3. Bet sizing on Preakness Day for that team was one third Kelly.

Given the above, Win Pool Bet Sizing for Early Voting at 5-1 can be calculated as follows:

Bank: 5,000,000
Edge: 0.15
Odds: 5.00

((Edge/Odds) X Bank)/3 = OneThirdKellyBetSize

Or

((0.15/5) X 5,000,000)/3 = 150,000

Or

Their total Win bets on Early Voting were $150k.

The above assumptions are hardly a given.

That said, I don't think the above numbers are that far removed from reality.

Total amount bet on Early Voting in the Win pool was $1.77 million.

$150,000 of $1.77 million is roughly 8.5%.

If three of the other whale teams bet $100k, $100k, and $75k on Early voting, that $425k would account for about 24% percent of the total money bet on Early Voting.

Again just a guess on my part. But Imo one that doesn't seem out of line.

Now any one of those whale teams could have stepped up and bet significantly more on Early Voting if they wanted to.

Provided they were the only team to do that, and that is by no means a given:

Final pool size would have supported it, and the horse would have still been an overlay.

But that goes against the grain of what they are trying to do:

Grind out profits by consistently betting an appropriate percentage of total stake on overlays many thousands of times over and over again each year.

Imo:

The $425k I'm guessing the whale teams collectively bet on Early Voting was very much in line with their game plans.

Even if a horse is an overlay, taking a flyer and making a bet MANY times larger than your game plan... THAT can only be called one thing:

GAMBLING.

And that is not what they do.



-jp

.