Originally Posted by dilanesp
Well, let's go through all of them in the last 30 years:
Alysheba- finished 4th, beaten something like 14 lengths. The winner was a logical horse, Bet Twice, who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Alyhseba proved to be a tremendous racehorse and would have been a worthy TC winner.
$77.80 Exacta $472 Trifecta
Sunday Silence- finished 2nd, beaten about 8 lengths, to Easy Goer, a logical horse who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Sunday Silence had an excellent career including a win in the BC Classic and would have been a worthy TC winner.
$8.80 Exacta $152 Trifecta
Silver Charm- finished 2nd, beaten a length or so, to Touch Gold, a logical horse who had a bad trip in the Preakness and might have been the best horse in that race. Silver Charm had an excellent career including the Dubai World Cup and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Exacta $13.60 Trifecta $23.80
Real Quiet- finished 2nd, beaten a nose, to Victory Gallop, a logical horse who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet did win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 4 but would have been a bit of a thin TC winner.
Exacta $17.60 Trifecta $275
Charismatic- finished 3rd, beaten a couple of lengths, to Lemon Drop Kid, who hadn't done much before the Belmont but was a late bloomer. Charismatic was injured in the race and retired. We don't know how good he would have been.
Exacta $1537 Trifecta $5343
War Emblem- finished up the track to Sarava, a huge longshot who never did anything of note before or after the Belmont. War Emblem was kind of a fraud and I am glad he didn't win the TC.
Exacta $2454 Trifecta $25209
Funny Cide- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Empire Maker, a logical horse who had beaten him in the Wood Memorial, was one of the favorites in the Derby, and finished in the money before being freshened. Funny Cide was a gelding and had a fairly long career but didn't really distinguish himself.
Exacta $44 Trifecta $67.50
Smarty Jones- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Birdstone, who was a late bloomer like Lemon Drop Kid was and who went on to win the Travers. Smarty Jones was retired for an alleged injury / for breeding value after the Belmont, so we don't know if he would have turned out any good or not.
Big Brown- did not finish, as Da Tara went wire to the wire as an absolute shocking longshot winner and then never won another race of consequence. I think Big Brown came back to win the Haskell before retirement, but we have no idea how good he really was.
Exacta $139 Trifecta $1589
California Chrome- finished 4th in a blanket finish, won by Tonalist, another late bloomer type like Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone. Tonalist turned out to be a nice New York stakes horse. California Chrome would have been a deserving TC winner and turned out to have a long career including a win and a second place finish in the Dubai World Cup, 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the BC Classic, and a smashing win over Beholder in the Pacific Classic. Probably going to the Hall of Fame.
Exacta $348 Trifecta $6781
American Pharoah- won the Belmont wire to wire. Not in the first tier of TC winners, but he won the BC Classic and was better than Sir Barton, Omaha, and Assault.
Exacta $13.60 Trifecta $285
So usually the TC horse loses the Belmont, even if he is really good. And the Belmont upsetter is usually either a logical horse who did well in the other legs of the TC or a late bloomer. If you are looking for a bomb, Da Tara and Sarava are your precedents.
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