Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Your analysis works for the serious players but is off the mark for recreational players. Serious players recognize overlay opportunities and as such are hurt when betting reduces or eliminates any overlay. In order to be hurt by the whales bets you need to be on the right side of the bet, the overlay side. Recreational bettors end up on the right side of a bet by accident and are generally placing their bets on the wrong side, the underlay side. One of the consequences of having a lot of smart money in pools is that they become more efficient. As such, odds become more efficient at both ends of the spectrum with both overlays and underlays. In a parimutuel system it is impossible to bet down odds on some horses and not have the odds go up on others. Those other horses are generally the horses perceived to be on the wrong side by the smart bettors. The very horses that recreational players bet. If players are getting paid more for underlays is that a bad thing for recreational players?
I don't dispute that the poor players are paying the bill for the other players. The facts, however, don't support the case that somehow the whales hasten the process.
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As pointed out by CH, their is a range in the recreational player. Some might be exceptional for their level and lose takeout -5% with a good distribution through takeout + 5 %. Of course it goes up from there. Your point is that when the whales make their bets they help the guys that are losing 45% or 50% roi and yes they likely do. But these playes unless they get better at the game, or have a huge tolerance for losing money or have so much money they do not care, are not part of racing's future. They likely will never evolve into a player that might bet 1/4 million or half million or a million dollars a year or more. So yes for the bottom 30/40 percent of this group, you have a good point, whales probably do not hurt them so what is the difference. But racing needs to convert those within 5% of takeout into more serious players. That is a large group of players.
I am talking about the future of racing. I am talking about providing some 21 year old who goes to Belmont Park for the first time with some friends and finds the game thrilling. He likes to gamble, finds the challenge of determining who will win a horse race an interesting puzzle. He watches you tube videos, picks up some books on the subject and he want to evolve into a serious horse player. This is the future of racing, not whales who come and go as the opportuinites arise, not us dudes in our 50s and 60's and 70's who may have already given the game up, or have a lot fewer years to give the game etc. If racing continue to price out the 21 year old and many others for that matter, there will be no future in racing. Despite their delusions otherwise, the main enternment value of horse racing is solely the gambling aspect. Properly priced this game is ten fold the best gambling game around (I know you disagree Andy C) imo. It becomes beatable, complex and the greatest intellectual challenge (I think that is what Andy Beyer said in one of his books). Right now, if you are not getting hefty rebates it is simply pick your poison, because no matter who you bet there just isn't much value there. For most over the short run they can hope to get lucky and over the long run just add up their losses. At this point I would say that for most they are better off taking a stab at a pick 5 or pick 6 carryover then they are trying to grind out profits in the other pools. Imagine what would happen to the pools if every horse player came to a similar conclusion,
Now Dilane (and the racing industry itself) come from the school of thought that gamblers expect to lose, so what. Some maybe, but overall I disagree with that premise. I get why they feel that way. If you run an adw and you see player X lost 21% in 2010 and 18% in 2011 and 25% in 2012 and 30% in 2013 and 14% in 2014..your reaction is going to be they just don't care. I do not believe it is that simple.
Any game that is beatable blackjack, sports betting, poker, horse racing, fantasy, has a leg up on the rest. All the beatable games are still very tough to beat, so every gambler will go the direction(s) that work best for them, and many will lose consistently in striving to beat these games. But that doesn't mean they want to lose, expect to lose or will continue to allow themselves to lose. In their mind there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Poker and sports betting are largely the same game they were (obviously the competition is more educated in poker), either you climb the mountain or you don't. Racing brought in whales. They basically changed the landscape to the point where that light at the end of the tunnel is gone. What % of current players realize that I am not sure, but they ultimately will find out. Once they realize that, they will exit the game and find another. Plenty already have and it is quite an easy and convenient excuse for this industry to blame competition.
