When half the field is comprised of firsters...then I don't give the race a second look. In the other cases, the quality of the more "experienced" competition will decide how I will approach the remaining firsters. The more accomplished the experienced horses look...the more I will doubt the winning chances of even the well-regarded firsters. If the field looks below average ability-wise, then I will include a "well-connected" firster in my horizontal wagers...but I never have enough confidence to wager on such a horse to win. I mean...even Secretariat lost his first race.
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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