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Old 12-02-2013, 01:00 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I think you are making a small mistake when stating the "Beyer view" above, Dave; this wasn't the idea behind Beyer's assertion that the value of a length should diminish as the race gets longer.

This is what Beyer presented as proof that a value-length adjustment should be made for the various distances:

When a human athlete runs a mile and his time is one second slower than the world record for the mile...then he is considered one of the world's best milers himself. But when he runs a 100-meter dash in a time that is one second slower than that of the 100-meter world record...then he is considered as nothing special at all.

This is hard to refute...IMO.

But the original poster is making a different point...which Beyer also addressed in one of his books:

The OP is talking about the adjustment that par charts make when projecting the horses' 6-furlong speed out to 6.5 furlongs.

In almost all the par charts we see...the difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs is always either 6.4 or 6.6 seconds -- regardless of class. A stakes horse who runs the 6f in 1:08.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:15 (a difference of 6.4 seconds)...while the 5,000 claimer who runs the 6f in 1:13.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:20 (the same difference of 6.4 seconds).

What the OP poster is asking is what Beyer himself asked...and what I -- and many other players -- have been asking for years now:

How is the 5,000 claimer able to negotiate the extra half-furlong of the 6.5f race in the same exact time as the stakes horse...when their ability levels are so different?

Shouldn't it take longer for the 5,000 claimer to travel that extra half-furlong than it takes a stakes horse?
This makes sense to me.

Slower horses should run at slower velocities than faster horses the longer they run. You would expect that if a stake horse is expected to run the last half furlong in a 6 1/2f race to be faster than a maiden 10k claimer. The greater the distance, the more the differential should be.
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