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When horses used to "blow out" a few furlongs a day or two before a race, a respitratory issue could be caught. TAP breezes his stakes horses 7 days before a race. Then they might walk for 2 days then jog or gallop a couple. The light work between the final breeze and the race isn't enough to bring evidence of impending issues to light. Respiratory issues usually take a few days to come on and the stress of the race on the lungs speeds the process. The analogy would be if a human misses going to the gym for a week during which he's fighting a cold. He goes and begins his his usually workout and gets halfway through and just cannot meet the demand.
By all accounts, Gemologist was working well at Saratoga. A couple of Todd's horses have run inexplicably bad in the last week. It's possible that he has some sort of "thing" going around his barn.
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