Some data based on the original data set. Got some stuff to do so not sure how much more I'll get to today. Probably best to see what people think. Probably need to generate impact values from this and see what it says but the data seems to flow about as expected---the slower the pace, the better horses near the front do. Not exactly earth shattering news but the numbers are the numbers.
The oddballs, peak and valley, are a bit interesting. Peak seems to play closest to a mild pace. Valley seems to play closest to a solid pace. This would indicate to me the opening 1/4 is more important than the 2nd quarter in determining the running style of the winner.
Code:
P1 Avg P2 Avg BL1 Avg BL2 Avg W2W Top2
ALL 0.68 0.78 1.98 1.40 0.29 0.49
Hot 0.60 0.70 3.19 2.27 0.19 0.35
Solid 0.69 0.78 1.87 1.43 0.29 0.48
Even 0.74 0.82 1.19 0.86 0.35 0.58
Mild 0.76 0.84 1.07 0.63 0.38 0.60
Cold 0.79 0.86 0.71 0.50 0.45 0.71
Peak 0.76 0.81 1.20 1.37 0.40 0.63
Valley 0.68 0.80 1.97 0.87 0.25 0.45
P1 average = position in the field after 1/4 mile expressed as a percentage to account for varying field sizes. (ex: 1st - 1.00, last = 0.00 regardless of field size, 4th of 11 = 0.70)
P2 average = same as above but after a half mile
BL1 average = average beaten lengths after 1/4 mile
BL2 average = average beaten lengths after 1/2 mile
W2W = winners that led after the opening 1/4 mile
Top2 = winners in top two after opening 1/4 mile
