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why record keeping is a farce
The last major subject to be written about has been on record keeping one's wagers. The idea is that if you know your strengths and weaknesses one should be able to stir themself toward profitability. Sounds logical doesn't it? And that's the lure that the average punter can't resist. Give a horseplayer an idea, and they throw money at it. Why is this a farce? Think about it. We derive our handicapping based on assumptions that probably utilize imperfect numbers and we may not have or know of all the information we need to bring this idea to fruition. If we win we conclude we have a winning method or if we lose we conclude our method didn't work. Record keeping in this manner is off little value because our opinion of what we think is in the way of our research, that is our formula. It is actually no better than the old lady who bets a horse on the colors of the silks. Instead we guess on our opinion. Both the old lady and the handicapper at the end of the day can record how they did. And if the lady had a good day, she might believe that blue is her winning color similarly to our handicapper with his method. What needs to be recorded is the inputted data to our decision not how we played based on our decisions.
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