Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
The answer is that without a sophisticated computer model, you can't. Given takeout, there won't actually be a lot of horses that represent "value" and if they do, it will be marginal....i.e. getting 5:2 on a horse that actually should be 2:1 is really very good value. What you might be able to do over time is develop a reasonable feel. Also, understand that if you are playing exotics, vertical or horizontal, the diffusion of takeout through added positions can create better "value" than straight win odds.
The best chance you have at getting "value" is to effectively eliminate favorites. If you can accurately remove even a 4:1 shot, you have effectively eliminated the takeout. If you eliminate a 2:1 from the first two slots, you could dutch the field and make money. This is the best way to give yourself a chance to win.
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"Effectively" being the key word. I tried to create "value" by eliminating the favored
in the 4th at Thistledown today...a horse whom I considered the very epitome of the term "false favorite". And the horse repaid me by winning easily.
