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Now I want to look at a day where a seaoned player has 4 key bets. 2 in the early pick 4 and 2 in the late pick 4. Instead of parlaying and playing a round robin with his key bets he chooses to do a single, single, all, all on both pick 4's. So let's assumed our seasoned player is about break even on key bets(which is reasonable-some are +5% others -5 to 10%).
So he elects to play the first pick 4 where his exprected return is
1.0 after the first key bet
1.0 after the 2nd key bet
.80 after the 1st all race
.64 after the 2nd all race
So after the 4 all races his return is .64.. Add about 50% to that because of one takeout instead of 4 takeouts and we are back to 96% of even.
Now let's say the player just parlays and round robins his 4 key bets. Since they are all about break even long term (because our seasoned player has evolved to the point that he breaks about even on prime bets). His return on each and every parlay is about 100%(break even).
So if you look at the 2 independently there is not a huge advantage to one over to the other. In a perfect world we would be able to have a pick 4 in races 1-2-8-9. But we certainly do not live in that perfect world today. Also I would venture a guess that very few players out there are (myself included) disciplined enough to focus their multi pick wagers to "key bet singles etc" or even positive expectation singles. For most of us it is I need a single to make this play, looks like this is the best one.
I believe parlay/round robin betting can be a a tool for all horseplayers to focus their betting on their strongest plays and possibly improve their long term roi. The parlay/round robin feature gives them the chance of a score, without having to rely so much on luck (8 deep in the last leg of the pick 4 and hoping the 8/5 favorite doesn't waltz home or worse yet only being live to the 8/5 favorite and watching your 2nd choice win).
Parlays just compound expectation. Have 2 horse with a 50% chance of winning and paying 3/2. Expected return on each is 25%. Parlay the 2 and you have a 25% chance of hitting but your return on a $2 parlay is $12.50, so your expected return is 25%*12.50 or $3.125 on a $2 bet or a 56.25% expectation. Of course the bad news is that you have to bet less since you went from a 50% winning expectation to a 25% winning expectation. You are also increasing your losing streaks significantly which can work against some players.
By the same token compounding expectation of parlays can work against the player who may think he has positive expectation but in reality he doesn't (eg the 2 horse he rates as having a 50% chance of winning only have a 35% chance of winning).
You have no argument from me that pick 4 and pick 5 betting is the best bet in this game, but even with 50 cent minimums they do not cater to the
undercapitalized or inexperienced bettor. Especially when you are dealing with really competitive racing.
Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays. CJ sees negative, I see positive(for horseplayers in general not myself (seems like I alwasy have to clarify that). Since the ability to parlay is already there, you may as well make it convenient for those who would like to use this feature. For the rest of you what is the difference if they offer it or not.
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