Sidebar

[Honest Abe]

The results of this program speak for itself. Feel free to check the website under HW Handicapping for recent results. It did well in the recent Triple Crown races with its results and had the tri-fecta order correct with its top three selections in the Florida Derby. The program is much more than Monte Carlo simulation, which itself is quite sophisticated. What it does better than any other program is provide accurate win probabilities of horses based on the results of the simulation and exponential smoothing (allowing more weight to be given to more recent results) and a win percentage calculation that adjusts for the stakes amounts of races. By having these calculations one can evaluate whether a horse is over, fairly or undervalued by comparing its total win probability to the implied win probability in the live odds. The program also uses color coding to indicate strength and weakness in the individual speed metrics as well as programmable limits to identify horses that meet superior statistical values with the speed data. The program was developed by a MBA graduate from Indiana University with assistance from a former graduate professor of business statistics at Indiana, who himself is a graduate in mathematics from MIT. You won't find a better program as far as the math of horse racing. The strategy book sold on the website explains the program and the math behind it in greater detail.