I had no idea what the ROI is but first-time gelding never seemed like a particularly strong angle to me, just by observation. When a horse wins with a form reversal I often go back to see if there were any angles present and very often I've seen blinker changes, distance or surface changes, improved workout, or simply coming off a freshening, which is a big one (horse runs a bad race or two, they rest the horse to cure whatever was bothering it). Can't recall seeing too many first time geldings, if any.
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