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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
First, a thank you to Ellis Starr--mentioned to him a thread I had going, about 6.5F races....he said he would find the thread and weigh in--which he did. One thing I learned from Ellis a long time ago--he probably doesn't even remember this:
It was about maiden races---he said in racing, horses go up and down in class--depending on their current form.
But with maidens....the elevator only goes one way--DOWN. Once maidens drop in class--there is no going back up.
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Ellis Starr is a fine handicapper. I know this because we used to spend hours together wagering at the Lancaster, CA satellite wagering facility before he moved to Lexington, and the one thing I noticed is that we rarely agreed on our selections.
Not to disparage Ellis, because neither of us were always right, and at the same time, neither of us were always wrong, but I disagree with his assessment that maidens can only drop.
One of my favorite longshot angles refutes this philosophy. The simple premise of the angle is this:
When a horse drops in class in his last race, finishes out-of-the-money, and then steps back up in class today, makes him a contender to be wary of.
I once caught an 0 for 32 maiden that utilized this angle, and went off 12-1 & won. Take a look at these contenders, and let me know what you think. The hit-rate isn't a high number, but the high odds make the angle a profitable one. It is an awesome way to find contenders at high odds to be utilized in your wagering strategy (i.e. Pik4/6 contender spreads)
Carry on, carry on,
Hajck
