Handicap this race at the dreaded Parx on 10/24/17. I picked it because of a full field and several class droppers and some potential Long Shots. I will probably only make my picks live close to post time on the selections thread.
Race 10-1 M 70 Yds-Clm 7500n2L; 3Yo&Up.
December Red 12-1 ML. Had this horse on a watch list since 9/5 when it won at $59 in Mc10K. That day he was 20-1 ML, should have been 30-1 and at first flash he was 8-1. Noted it but didn’t pull the trigger looking at his abysmal form. Came back at 10K-n2L and finished a grudging 3rd. Gets drop today, with two good improving races. His FP(fulcr. pace) would be 113.1 in l.r. (112.2-2lr)
Mr McFrosty 5-1 ML. Drops from 16K at Bel and Bris says drop looks suspicious. LR he put up a 112.2, but finished 7 bl’s from winner, that number looks aberrant in his pp’s.. Back in May, he showed a 114.2, again at Bel in a one turn mile. Prime pwr #2.
Bubba Chub 10-1 ML. -Having a hard time keeping this one in. Fin. 3rd two races ago at 5000 clm. FPace is 114.2 from back in July. Look elsewhere.
Open Bar 15-1 ML. Last raced at Sar for 16000 in Aug. 54 days off with only two workouts. Has been ITM 5/10 races all in sprints.
Lightning Flash 20-1 ML. 2nd last race he showed improved form at same level same distance finished 2nd. Then his trainer ships him to run a mile on the turf where he’s eased. Back today at level where he fin. 2nd. Was that race a workout, and back today for 7500? FP is 113.4 and 113.0 at Med. Along with the 1, he’s one of my possible long shots.
My Uncle Al 4-1 ML. He’s Bris Prime Pwr #1. Last time he ran a pace race at 114.3 and faded to 4th at this level at 1-1/16. Two races back at 25000 he ran 112.1 pace and fin. 3rd. Last race looks like he’s declining, but I have his last fraction as tied for one of the best with the #9.
Unpredictable 5/2 ML. Lightly raced horse(⅕) and prime pwr. #3. L R he looked dismal in the mud at 6f. Third race back at this dist.-he was third with a 113.1 pace in MC30K. Doesn’t look to me like he’ll be the favorite.
Curly Pal 6-1 ML. He ran a good 2nd last race at 1-1/16, same level. He shows a whopping +23 increase is his SR over 2nd lr. Also a big increase in E2 pace ratings. I have his pace at 114.4-114.2. Last fraction looks to be on the slower group. At 1/42, his best level looks to one level down from this one.
Albie 15-1 ML Last race pace at 116.0 at 6250Clm and next avail at 114.4. With that slow pace, he managed to put up one of the fastest last fraction times with the #6.
West Shore Drive 20-1 ML. Form looks abymal in last 3 races of which two are at this level and routes. One of the Sartin or Bradshaw rules I’ve seen on another site was don’t even bother to look at 20-1 ML’s. Here’s one I may agree with on this horse.
Sambook 15-1 ML. Last race was in Aug at Mth for 5000 sprint. For his pace times, I get a 114.0 and 113.4 in routes. His late speed looks to be one of the slowest.
