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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I looked at Fonner Park one year when in state simulcasting was allowed. I keep track of very time I thought a horse took and when it took it. Then I tried to break it down by trainers. I had numbers for the entire meet. There was only about 5 trainers who anything close to consistent as when the betting took place for winners. I did find out when a lot of "bad" money came in. The next year out state simulcasting came in and I stopped betting Fonner Park. I really have my doubts that anything very useful can be found by studying the timing of money.
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Combine this with an owner, and it can be quite accurate. In the 80s at Longacres, you could tell with absolute certainty when a Mike Chambers trained, John Roche owned horse was the nuts. Mr. Roche would put significant money on the horse before the live betting started. 3/1 morning line would start at 2/5, and you knew Mr. Roche was confident of his runner that day. During a 6 month meet, there would be a half a dozen no brainer Chambers/Roche plays. Seldom would you get even money, as all the wise guys knew what was up, but I do remember getting 3/1 on a FTS filly once. She was 5/2 ML if I remember correctly, was 3/5 when betting opened, and floated. It made no sense that it floated as it was just another of Mr. Roche's Knight's Choice babies. I have no idea how that one slipped by. My father-in-law pointed this out to me the same time he pointed out jockeys ditching one mount for another by pointing out Gary Baze getting off the ML favorite to take the mount on Hilco Scamper in his debut. Scamper opened at 1/5 and somehow we got 7/5 if I remember correctly. He beat the 2nd time starter Baze ditched by 15 in 56 and small change.
In the 15 years I've been playing SoCal, I haven't been able to identify a combination like this, though I've looked for it as that lesson was never lost on me.
