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[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Was just now at Cohail's site (it's still up)......somehow googled my way to it. I liked his take on what's worthwhile in handicapping--and what's useless. I believe the author has since passed, but his site is well-worth the read.

He wasn't afraid to go against the grain of modern handicapping:

"The following aspects are borderline worthless:

Speed Numbers: I once believed in speed numbers, but wisdom comes with age, and I now wonder how anyone can believe a manipulated number is somehow more accurate than the actual time of a race is beyond my grasp.

Track Variants: Impossible to determine with any degree of accuracy.

Beyer Speed Figures: The worst hoax ever perpetuated upon the race-going public.

Par times: The dynamics of every race are different, and profiles based on average times for a given distance are highly flawed. They have no bearing on what will happen in the race under scrutiny.

Class: An elusive element. Worrying about which horse is the “class” in a race is daunting, time consuming, and mostly a waist of time.

Post Position: The post position a horse will break from has little, if any, influence on the outcome of the race.

Jockey: A competent trainer will employ a competent jockey. Issue closed.

Weight: Probably the most overemphasized factor in horse racing.

Track Condition: Another factor that gets far more attention than it deserves."


https://amgona.wordpress.com/2013/09...pping-aspects/

I googled his book for a review, and it brought me to this older thread.
NCG

Almost all of these points are completely wrong.