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Originally Posted by tackleberry
The average winning price was 3.43/1
Variance is certainly a concern, which would be one of the reasons to test further with new data.
You example about speed figures last race is well taken.
And no need to say sorry for not betting on my success, neither am I at this point lol
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I would say that your computations of "overlay" are very crude in the sense that in order to come up with probability of a horse to win you use bin average, not actual probability of win computed specifically for this horse. If even such crude method is profitable, then definitely your system has huge potential because you would get much better results simply by changing the way how you compute probability of win.
