My prediction is that the is S&P will hit a high somewhere between 2367 and 2474 between now and January 12. That is a 10% to 15% gain over the July 14, 2016 close of 2152.
A major "buy" indicator was triggered on July 8 when the Up Volume to Down Volume ratio on the NYSE exceeded 9 to 1. Two days later another "buy" indicator was triggered when the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio on the NYSE exceeded 2 to 1. This indicator is very rare, but is an extremely powerful momentum indicator. It happened 11 times from 1953 to 1993, but every time the market rose by nearly 10% over the next 6 months. The average gain was 15%. (I will calculate from 1993 to present and see if it holds true.)
The S&P closed today at 2150 -- right where it was back on July 12. Considering that September is one of the weakest months of the year. The market has plenty of upside.
The presidential election is a big factor. The market traditionally does better under democratic presidents than republicans. If Clinton wins the market should continue higher. Probably because the Fed will keep interest rates low and continue its policy of quantitative easing.
If Trump wins then all bets are off.
