Quote:
|
Originally Posted by adwplayingfool
With the current state and high takeout percentages what is the way to go? finding a 10-1 who CAN win or a 2-1 that SHOULD win? in the end it comes down to cashin your ticket or throwing it out but what is the generzl consensus on the best way to make your play.
|
To me, finding value does not mean betting horses indiscriminately merely because their odds are high, nor arbitrarily excluding horses because their odds are low. A successful value approach has to recognize the valid percentages associated with prominent handicapping factors, and the reality that the bulk of winners comes from the lower-to-middle odds ranges. But (as far as your basic question), as long as an appropriate blend of factors is being used for the evaluation, I'll take an overlay (whether at lower or higher odds) over an underlay every time. (Expressed in the terms you used, it's not the mere fact that you tear up tickets, but the rate at which you tear them up versus the return that you receive when you cash them.)
(It's also been shown that you can include a low-odds horse that is slightly underlaid in a group wager with overlaid horses, and receive a higher return than if the underlay were excluded. So, it's also possible to have the best of both worlds.)
