Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I agree.
The game changes and so do the values associated with various factors, approaches, and angles as gamblers scour databases looking for value and as different major players move into and out of the game.
To me, that's one of the great dilemmas of the game.
If you try to build an odds line, it's often going to be flawed because you have inaccurate or incomplete information and understanding or you are weighing the various factors wrong.
If you try to focus on specific situations where there may be value, you can't be sure what was true in the past is still true now because the betting patterns may have changed.
The most obvious example of changes in betting patterns are trainer patterns. If you look at some angle for a trainer over a decent sized sample it may be profitable, but as the sample grows, the prices will keep falling. So even if it keeps winning at the same rate going forward, it may be unprofitable going forward.
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In the last few years, I have changed my views on an odds line.
I am no longer looking to change the way I calculate odds, though I don't close my mind to the possibility. I try to stay away from the most volatile factors and I include enough factors to make them somewhat self-stabilizing.
And, I don't try to closely compare the odds line to the tote board. I just figure the odds line should estimate how strong a play a horse is by traditional standards. That way i don't go crazy when the whales drop the odds late. lol I know that any horse I have at or below 3/1 could go to odds on at closing.
