Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm not convinced of anything after 4 starts. That's the point I've been making.
What I know is I rarely find good bets when my insights are the same as all the wise guys on Twitter, on social media, and on TV. I like it better when I find a situation where there's group think because everyone is using similar figures, has similar ideas, and thinks the same things, but I have reason to think otherwise.
I have thought and continue to think there's better chance she jumps up than the typical wise guy thinks even though I bet against her last time. That's why I am talking about her.
I don't think there will be value betting against her anymore for the same reason there was no value betting on Tacitus off his "trips". Everyone thought he was better than he looked, but there were reasons to think the consensus might be wrong. This is the flip side. Everyone is 100% convinced she's been exposed as a fraud. I'm not yet.
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Let’s say she does jump up....it’s not like she will be a price if she does, right?
You admit you have a hard time finding bets. What would possibly make her something you’d want to bet going forward? Assuming she runs the table (unlikely) out west what kind of a price would she be in the KY Oaks?
Isn’t the goal to find horses whose form is muddied up by situations where they ran better than it looks? When she has faced bad fields she’s looked good, while running slow. When she faced a good field she got exposed. Her workmate that everyone used as a barometer isn’t very good.
