Interesting
You are doing well at this.
Obviously you have some methods that are bringing you to an opinion.
semantics - I call those methods 'models'
and they are the crux of success in this idea. When you find which ones are really impactful, and have the patience to search them out and wait them out, it gives some chance at having a positive angle.
old spiel ;
The most elementary, important insight, related to our Pari-mutuel System, is the fact that our system is 'Favorite-Centric'.
By definition, the favorite has the largest market share of each pool. In order to overcome the takeout (often 15-25% taken out of pools before payouts are calculated), you absolutely must be right about the favorite. If that isn't already obvious, let that sink in. Every horse has a bucket of money in front of it. The BIG BUCKET is in front of the Favorite.
