Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
My understanding is Benter's models we're basically not profitable (or barely so) until he incorporated the crowd's odds. The whole bit about the horse eating its breakfast is often quoted. Notice he's not just contrasting his odds with the crowd's odds at the end of the process as most of us do, though he seemed to do that in the early attempts. I think it's safe to say he absolutely did detect action and piled on to it, and that was actually the real breakthrough. He in fact changed everything up by starting his process with the crowd's odds which presumably already do include to some degree the perceived raceday status of the horse's health and stable intent. It was a game-changer that he apparently said was his biggest innovation and allowed him to win many millions of dollars at 19% takeout with no rebate. Nowadays there's much more competition doing this and rebates are available besides but I don't think any of these CAW teams would do so well without detecting action. I suspect they won't be keen on anything whatsoever being introduced (like fixed odds) which might obscure their ability to detect action. I'm open to being corrected about this as I do not know any CAW teams nor do I know Mr. Benter, only what I've read about him over the years.
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I understand how incorporating the crowd's odds into your model helps you create a more accurate odds line, but I don't understand how it helps you win.
If I make a horse 2-1 and the crowd makes him 9-1, let's say the using both makes his new line 5-1. I'm still going to bet him at 9-1.
If I make a horse 2-1 and the crowd makes him 4-1, let's say the using both makes his new line 3-1. I'm still going to bet him at 4-1.
About the only time it might change your bet is if I make a horse 2-1 and the crowd makes him 3-1. Let's say the using both makes him 5/2. I might not bet him at 5/2 because there's not enough margin of safety.
Someone explained it to me one time and it made a little sense, but I can't remember what the thinking was.
