|
Lessons learned:
(1) Takeout: Never play into large takeout pools unless your ADW provider gives you a sliding-scale rebate such that takeout % is negated.
(2) Pool size, also known as potential for profit. Key to this consideration (but not mentioned in your post) is field sizes. I know PEN is getting some rather large fields these days, but with an average field size of 8 horses, you need 100-200 combinations (even using the in-vogue Crist method of A-B-C ticket construction) to give yourself a fighting chance to cash the gimmick. Singling a 3-5 in one leg is the worst possible way to play the wager because everyone is doing it and the value is thereby cut way down. You should be looking to play against weaker favorites whenever possible.
You would like the returnable pool to be at least 40-1 on your base investment. This gives you sufficient reward for holding the rare pool-shot ticket. Considering a play of 200 combinations, that means a returnable pool of $8000, which under a 25% takeout means a total pool of $10,667.
Do not be persuaded by the notion that a smaller pool gives you a better chance for a pool scoop and therefore playing into smaller pools is wise. There is a certain randomness to the coverage of longshot numbers even in small pools and if you share a number with a guy playing his lucky number, your return on investment will be a joke. And even if you hold the lone ticket, the ROI on the bet will be insufficient.
Never scale back your ticket coverage to fit the pool size. Work the other way around. Construct the ticket first and then check to see if the pool offers sufficient reward. If it doesn't, don't play. Trimming tickets to lower cost will have you on the bridge next to the $2.10 show players.
Other tips: Look for large and contentious field where you can plausibly play more, not less, combinations. Routinely make suspect favorites "B" or "C" horses rather than "A".
Mark
|
