Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
as I very clearly stated I am focused on betting only against odds on favorites
odds on favorites have 50% or more of the win pool
*
|
Same principle.
Even when you dislike an odds on favorite, they are still going to win a decent percentage of the time. They are almost never so bad or you so right about the situation that those horses are always going to lose.
IMO (assuming you've identified a bad odds on favorite), those horses will just win less often than the odds suggest and lose way more than the track take. That's usually enough to get you in the ballpark for profit. But to give yourself a real margin of safety it helps if you have some positive value oriented opinion on 1 or 2 of the other contenders.
My typical bet would look something like this.
The odds on favorite is coming off a gold rail that not many people noticed and was loose in a soft pace the time before that. He's good, but no way is he even money in this spot.
An 8-1 shot raced OK while outside on that same day and his previous effort was clearly good enough to win if I'm right about the favorite and that bias. A 15-1 shot got subtly squeezed at the start last out that didn't draw a chart comment, his previous race was against the race flow, and his races before that are good enough to be in the mix.
I would bet both the 8-1 and 15-1 shots to win and box them in the exacta weighted a little heavier towards whoever I thought was the bigger overlay.
But you should do whatever works for you.
