Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm not trying to hedge anything. IMO, there are no right answers.
|
I enjoy you commentary.
Not here trying to grade you.
We talked about the races.
and they were valid points.
the 'jump up' threat in a big barn is a real thing, and we saw a few performances BC Weekend illustrate that.
That's a significant model.
add to that, the fact that she looked solid in the workouts... , and if you go back, albeit in soft races, she has always been heavily backed, and maybe you occasionally correlate hype and trainer-speak a bit in the mix as well...
all of these happen to be minor models moving in that direction.
So you have a 'tradeoff' and it gets complicated, and you can split hairs...
back to the simple, most significant stuff = the price
at favorite and around 2/1 the odds were a strong enough model, along with the speed and class models, that there was enough margin for error and for calculating less significant models and possibilities.
If she had been 10/1, the whole argument gets flipped, and you have sharps saying "you want to include her in any spreads"...
