Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
No one thinks they are controversial. It’s amusing watching you cover every single base you can to come back to this thread and say “see I told you so” regardless of how she runs.
Just like you did after the Breeders Cup. No one could possibly read the post you made and think you scored out. But sure enough, the race wasn’t even official and you quoted yourself (leaving out the part that showed you covering all the bases) to say you crushed it.
It’s just funny.
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I think my posts before the BC are pretty clear.
1. I thought "the wise guys" were underestimating Princess Noor's chances of jumping up a lot (she did not), but I was probably going to play against her anyway at the price because of the large figure gap.
2. The only horses I mentioned positively were Vekoma and Dayoutotheoffice with a preferences for Vekoma turning the tables. I explained why. I also said I didn't like Simply Ravishing as much and explained why.
Maybe my post after the race was in poor taste, but it was a kind of momentary expression of joy to people I've known here for a long time. From now on I'll just count the money privately.
This is the exact reason I don't post selections very often. I don't get paid to be a public handicapper and spell it all out and I don't want to deal with the nonsense.
I'm not trying to hedge anything.
IMO, there are no right answers.
In the same way I thought the "wise guys" were underestimating the probability of PN jumping up a lot in the Juvenile (and I still do even though she did not), I think they are still underestimating her ability to get a lot better now. It's not a YES or NO answer. Even after the fact it's a probability problem that's part of deciding whether to make a bet.
I can't even tell you what the probability is. But when people that bet against her in BC are acting like it was a foregone conclusion that she had little chance going into the BC because she was slower, I disagree.
Those are the same people that whine whenever a slower Baffert or Cox horse jumps up to beat them at a decent price instead of building it into their odds line properly and maybe using some of them.
If PN loses her next start, Baffert makes up an excuse, and retires her, I will still disagree about the probabilities.
