Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Princess Noor was hardly in a moderate field. She was in one of the stronger runnings of the BC Juvenile Fillies in years. She went into the race as the sixth fastest of seven and came out that way. I don't know of anyone I respect that considered her even a player. Most considered her as bad a favorite as you will see in a race.
As for Arrogate, the Travers field was deep, and there were plenty of accomplished horses in it, but none were even remotely fast at that point in their careers. Arrogate had around a 103 Beyer ( albeit in a three horse field ) at Del Mar, which pretty much qualified him as being as fast as anyone, if not faster. I didn't like him, and you could hardly predict he would explode the way he did, but he was far more competitive on paper than the laughably over her head Princess Noor. That filly of Mandella's that won last weekend at Del Mar will swat her away like a gnat if and when they meet.
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Even with Arrogate's generous mutuals,
the pre-race opinion that Princess Noor was a badly mispriced favorite, was a better, more valuable opinion, than knowing to include Arrogate in a 'spread' Travers.
In general, I had both horses valued as 'mid-range odds' type of contenders.
Both horses, mispriced by the Public...
Thanks for exposing the flaws in a perfectly good example.
