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To me these are the "enigma" horses.
Most horses that win big and get eased through the stretch are cheaper horses that just happened to run into a soft field, get an easy trip, a favorable track bias etc... It's the soft trip that allowed them to win so easily. When they move up in class or face a much tougher trip next out they run slower.
However, there's a subgroup of horse like this that are actually very good horses with substantial reserves of stamina. If pushed harder earlier to a faster pace they will carry that speed and stamina to an even faster final time (until they reach their own breaking point).
The things is, it's sometimes hard to know what you are dealing with when it comes to very lightly horses that haven't been tested or exposed yet. It's even tough when they've strung a lot of wins.
My guess is that people that are taking Princess Noor's figures at face value are almost certainly underestimating her. This was a 1.35 million dollar purchase, pounded in the betting first out, from a sire that is doing quite well, and for an all time great trainer that works his horses in company and is saying she's special. It's very likely there's more in the tank we haven't see yet.
The thing is, in Beyer terms she's a 78/79, but there are horses in race that have already gotten into the 90s or a hair below it. So this isn't the typical debate where there's a few points difference and you can say "she's got more in the tank and deserves favoritism even though she's a hair slower so far". She'll have to have a LOT more in the tank. That's what makes it so interesting.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-31-2020 at 02:54 PM.
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