Quote:
Originally Posted by ARAZI91
Over here in the UK we work in in terms of weight and usually in pounds instead of your "speed" points. The official handicappers here work on a scale of 0-140. First thing i would do with the two races in your example is equate those 1.50 differences to relevant poundage using a simple equation and a constant of 1500lbs (25lbs per second) , i have added a few other theoretical races at increased distances with the same time difference from standard(baseline) and for illustration used a base of 140 to show the effect it has on the base ratings - obviously this is pre-variant and not accounting for weight/wind/maturity/sex etc.
We also construct the variant (termed a "Going Allowance" over here) by use of the official handicap ratings as a measure of expected/actual ability and this is generally expressed in pounds as well so that it ties in with the official scale.
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and going off topic!
weight is an interesting variable
where i can figure how much it is worth, then it's worth as a predictor is more or less depending on how well the official handicappers do their job.
i can get minimal value out of weight in hk where the spread is great and they are nearly all handicaps, and the people doing it don't cater to the whims of whingeing trainers and owners.
conversly when i used to do japan(not sure if still the same) weight was very very important because there was usually bugger all spread and they were set weights.
which of course means the weights were more similar than the abilty of the horses involved , thus far easier to find the advantaged/disadvantaged.
all the other countries have those same variations that make them all different as to how good a predictor weight is.
but imo weight has almost the same impact at any distance.
it's when they are under pressure that the weight is important, not when they are just following the leader early and mid stage doing bugger all work
a long time ago i had a conversation with aw's 2ic and he told me that they could find nothing to indicate weight was more important at longer distances.
that matched my own thinking.
it's more about how they work in the run than it is about distance.
