Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle r
Even if multiple horses in any particular race offer, in your opinion, overlaid odds - considering the reality of high takeout and breakage a likely occurrence of uncommon frequency - one horse will always be the biggest overlay. And betting on any but that entry is the wrong tack.
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In theory you are 100% correct.
But imo the reality is sometimes a little different
(at least for me).
The complexities of the game are such that trying to place an exact probability on each horse is more of an intellectual exercise than one that always produces a fairly accurate estimate. I think a "range' is probably a better way to think about it because none of us is working with complete or fully accurate data/insights.
If you put the 10 best handicappers in the world in the same room they'd all make different odd lines (different figures, different insights etc..)
I think there are times you know two horses are an overlay (perhaps you hate the favorite) but your estimates of value are way too fuzzy to know which is more of an overlay. So imo it's fine to bet both.
Another may be a situation where the biggest overlay has between a 5%-8% chance of winning at 25-1 and another horse has a 30% chance at 3-1. The first one is a bigger overlay, but proper bankroll management would suggest you could bet more on the latter without risk of ruin. So why not bet both?
