Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Looking at it from a slightly different angle - just quickly thinking out loud, absolutely willing to have it torn apart.
Our estimations of probabilities in setting our odds lines need to be very good, but they won't be perfect. Some will be set too high, some too low. So our one "biggest overlay" may not be the actual biggest overlay. Dutching can potentially catch more of our internal errors and smooth overall performance. (Your point about keeping off tilt here is relevant - that's less of a concern with an "automated" way of estimating true odds, but VERY applicable if you arrive at your odds line "manually".)
With so many small fields today, one can envision the dutch as setting up a virtual "coin flip" situation (my 2 against the other 3 or 4, my 3 against the other 4) where you may be essentially getting 6 to 5 for your win and only paying the 5 when you lose, if you dutch to bet a flat amount per race. I'd flip that coin as many times as I can, and if I'm not trying to split hairs between two contenders, I'm liable to put more into play.
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It seems to me that the said "short fields" are the races that are most susceptible to the indignity of the drastic late odds dropdowns that we so often see in today's game. Consequently...I would be worried that I would collect 4 to 5...instead of the 6 to 5 that I initially expected.
