Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle r
Let’s consider. We are talking gambling. Winning gambling is a function of understanding probability. And probability is a branch of mathematics. So, what does the math say? The math says the only way to profit in the long run is to make bets where the probability, ie the odds, are in your favor. No betting system can negate or alter that reality. Even if multiple horses in any particular race offer, in your opinion, overlaid odds - considering the reality of high takeout and breakage a likely occurrence of uncommon frequency - one horse will always be the biggest overlay. And betting on any but that entry is the wrong tack. In summation, dutching is not mathematically sound. Now, if psychologically you need to cash more frequently to keep you off tilt there may be a price and value to that. But you must not pay too dear. And buying insurance race in and race out is obviously too dear a price to pay.
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My memory isn't what it used to be, so I might be wrong in my assessment here...but this might be the most intelligent post that I have read on this board during the 17 years that I've been here. And I am dead serious.
If I may, I'd like to add that...if we think that we can regularly find two or three overlaid horses in the same race which we could "dutch"...then we are surely deceiving ourselves.
