Quote:
Originally Posted by exactatom
I have liked Mendelssohn since he went in the sales ring at Keeneland. This will be a good race to see how handles the dirt and gets a respectable field to compete against. This horse and Aiden O'Brien is who the lads at 4th and Central had in mind when they made an attempt to get Euro horses over here.
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Perhaps the only thing that Mendelssohn has going for him as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned is that the BC Juvenile Turf, oddly enough, has been quite productive in terms of Derby trail prep races.
Also-rans Catholic Boy, My Boy Jack, Flameaway, and Snapper Sinclair came out of that race and have put up some decent performances this year.
However it should be noted that Juvenile Turf runner-up Untamed Domain was a decided dud in his dirt debut in the Tampa Bay Derby...this coming off the heels of an unimpressive 3yo debut in a graded turf stakes at Gulfstream. The 3rd place horse in the BC was Voting Control, who hasn't breezed since.
Despite the lofty price tag as a yearling ($3 million), Mendelssohn was nowhere near the upper echelon of Coolmore juveniles last year, toiling in his debut and practically easing in his first Group stakes appearance. He was 50-1 when he was a non-threatening 2nd in the Dewhurst behind stablemate US Navy Flag.
While both Mendelssohn and US Navy Flag were cross-entered in the BC Juvenile on the main track, O'Brien wisely tossed the latter in the race as neither horse had much of a chance to win. US Navy Flag, who was already overraced for the year (11 starts as a 2yo), arguably has a better dirt sire in War Front, and with a couple of Group 1 wins under his belt was rather "overqualified" for the BC Juvenile Turf.
O'Brien had had much success in the past with second-tier colts in the Juvenile Turf, taking it down with group-placed Wrote, group-placed George Vancouver, and listed stakes winner Hit It A Bomb. None of those 3 won another race in their careers.
Wrote did make his debut in the UAE Derby on Tapeta and was a modest 3rd behind stablemate Daddy Long Legs. Daddy Long Legs, like Mendelssohn a son of Scat Daddy, went on to the Kentucky Derby and failed to finish the race when eased.
Pedigree-wise, Mendelssohn has as much "dirt" as you might need considering the racing exploits of his siblings (Beholder and Into Mischief). However, what is lacking is the requisite stamina. Both Scat Daddy and Into Mischief excel in siring miler types and moreover, these offspring seem to do their best running on turf...not dirt. I could be wrong, but I believe that the only son of Into Mischief that could be viewed as a viable prospect in the Kentucky Derby (that actually made it to the race) was Golden Cents, who was unplaced at both Churchill and Pimlico, before getting a renewed lease on life when reformed as a one-turn horse.
