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Feeding off of what Delta is saying when it comes to longshot examples, I am all ears but tracking odds on my contenders not all odds there is a futile reality in a pure longshot approach.
Of my AB contenders they represent 20% of the entries and win 56% of the races. But odds of 9-1 and up only win between 3-5% depending on the year. Unless you are extremely selective at a 5% clip you would have to have an average mutuel of $40 to break even.
Of the marginal C contenders it gets even more futile as they represent 28% of the entries and win 32% of the races. Longshots hovering in the 1% area.
This year I've noticed the $12-18 range eroding in win capacity too. But I also recognize that my database of my contenders tends to be clustered around big tracks because I like turf races. My longshot hunts are conducted mostly at small tracks like Mahoning Valley, Will Rogers, and Louisiana Downs.
Anyway while I've developed many angles over the years I don't follow value handicapping down the rabbit hole anymore.
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