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Old 02-24-2018, 10:20 PM   #25
JerryBoyle
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Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 845
Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4 View Post
I was wondering if any kind of stat or program exists to give jockeys something of a performance expectation rating. What I mean by this is say a jockey is on the 4th betting choice in a race & they finish 2nd, I'd give them a +2 score that race, or if you're on a favorite and finish 5th they'd get a -4 for that race. Wonder if an average score would help identify riders who may be over/underestimated by the betting public, or could possibly help identify upcoming apprentice jockeys as ones to watch.
Been lurking around the forum for a while without contributing, and this post got me thinking. I like the idea, but wanted something that penalized/rewarded runners relative to the rest of the race. Inspired by BIC, and using the public odds, I've come up with:

(ln(p) / sum(ln(pj))) - (ln(1-p) / sum(ln(1-pk))) where p is the runner we're scoring, pj are the runners we've beaten, and pk are the runners to which we've lost.

Looking Race 1 at GP yesterday (2-23-18), the scores would have been:
HTML Code:
Program #     Finish        Public Prob             Score
3                   1              .047               10.73
8                   2              .244               -1.88
2                   3              .065               4.98
1                   4              .057               3.67
4                   5              .047               2.61
5                   6              .244               -20.04
7                   7              .011               2.83
6                   8              .296               -60.29
I plan to use it in a regression to try and determine significance, but so far it seems to capture the idea that the OP is after. Feel free to refine/improve
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