2/19/18 Southwest Stakes, 8.5F, Oaklawn
DRF Chart -
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180219&RN=9
Timeform Figures 1/4-144 1/2-134 3/4-115 Final Fig-118 muddy(sealed)
Analysis - My Boy Jack: Any discussion about this race has to start with the track. I reviewed all 10 races on the card and it pretty obvious this is a extreme inside bias track. Race after race horse who hugged the rail during the race, and especially down the lane made up ground or had more energy that outside horses. While none of the fractions were red as timing wise the race did not fall apart it sure favored horses from off the pace. My Boy Jack saved all the ground, rallied up the rail, in a race that strongly favored closers. Do you want to bet this horse next time? Me neither. Marginal contender at this point and only franks the form of McKinzie.
Combatant: What a great ride by Santana. Somehow got to the rail on the first turn, stayed there till he had to tip out and could not match the winner who was able to stay on the rail. Still though, in a race with a ton of speed horses and fast pace to boot and good rail he should have finished a bit better. Given the mud I am going to view him as a marginal contender and in his next race depending on the odds may play him. There still could be a forward move for him.
Sporting Chance: I suppose this was a good starting spot, but he did stay on the inside. Given the fast fractions I can view as a decent effort and play him in the right spot. He feels like he will be overbet off this, guess will have to judge on the field he faces.
Mourhino: The horse we were against off his last prep. He didnt run bad given the pace but also was inside the whole way, and I dont think this field had any killers in it. At this point feels like a real longshot derby contender.
Zing Zang - I am just pointing out that he was outside the whole way, as a Derby contender he should have finished better but in a easier spot I see him as a possible play.
Race Replay (6 min mark)
