Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Can the  improve about 4 seconds (20 lengths) from his last race, assuming we see the typical FL Derby run in around 1:49 and change? This combined with his 5.00 DI, and potential speed duel with the  and  makes it real hard for me to bite on this one. It seemingly sets up well for the favorite  if healthy. Perhaps some quirky horse hits the board if there is a bona fide pace meltdown. |
I don't think he needs to improve 20 lengths (even based on final time of his last race). Gunnevera won last out in just over 1:44 and that got a monster figure (probably a knockout number to be honest). I set the over/under closer to 1:51 to win this race.
I'm normally the guy who says "but the horse hasn't run fast enough yet" but everything about this race screams easy win for the 4. The 11 has to bounce, they'll be scraping the 10 off the track turning for home and everyone else seems an also-ran or a non-contender
