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Old 02-28-2018, 04:55 PM   #29
classhandicapper
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
In my view there are 2 times to make an exacta bet. One is to leverage an overlay I see in the win pool and two is to bet when I believe a low priced horse will be out of the top 2. In the first instance, I have found that overlays in the win pool carryover to overlays in the exacta pool. I did not find that the overlay carried over to playing the win overlay in the 2nd spot of the exacta. Hence, I see no reason to reverse the exacta bet made with my win pool overlay. When I feel a low-priced horse will run out of the top 2 boxing contenders is the preferred play.

I have rarely found a situation where an underlay in the win pool could be turned into an overlay in the exacta pools. It usually creates negative leverage.
That is my formula almost 100%.

I add one wrinkle. When I think the favorite is OK but I like 2 other horses more at better prices I sometimes bet both to win and do an exacta box. I know the favorite could bust up my exacta, but value to value in the exacta pool leverages to a ton of value. So I put a portion of the bet there.
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