Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
Wasn't this same Pat Cummings the one who was bragging a while back that he saved horse players from the practice of someone betting no hopers in the exacta pool to pad their prices offshore. Don't see why crushing an exacta from the 9th choice to the 8th choice isn't worth looking into. Was it one team? Many teams? How did they come up with it? Was it indeed just crushing the horse that ran 2nd or was there more to it? Did something unscrupulous happen in the race. Where there is smoke, typically there is fire. If I bet my money at Saratoga I would expect a full investigation. If racing is going to live or die by the caw, at least police what they are doing. Yes there is no law against betting the right combination, but maybe some laws/rules were broken when they came up with that combination. Maybe you have some bad actors in the backstretch, that shouldn't be there? Maybe some of the caw are the bad actors. All of a sudden scandal is not possible in horse racing? Because anybody betting large sums of money in horse racing has integrity beyond reproach?
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What people typically fail to realize with CRW is this - they are trying to get back $1.00 for every $1.00 wagered. That's it as the rebate on the volume takes care of the rest. In aggregate they actually fail to do this the vast majority of the time. They probably make 90 to 95 cents on the dollar - a huge feat in its own right - overall.
So why would they pound the 2 in this scenario? They would pound the 2 if they were under exposed in other pools. Supposedly they aren't allowed to wager on WIN within 2 minutes. I'm going to assume they are still active before that window - they have to be just to keep up the volume they need to qualify for the rebate. And the overall data suggests to me they are still in that pool. Market making under these conditions where you can't bet last is complicated. Perhaps they had underbet 2 relative to how the other pools had developed *after* they were locked out of win and *before* they pounded the 2 in the other vertical exotics.
Conversely, you get scenarios like race 10 on the same card where they are over exposed in the win pool on the winner. In this scenario they have too much on the 9 relative to the public and how the pools have developed *after* they are locked out. So they will be looking at other combos without the 9 in verticals to cover the race.
That average Joe is just not equipped to deal with this of course - the idea that all the pools are really one pool and exploiting small differences in price between them. This is why I think cutting them off at 2MTP has had some unintended consequences and it's not just as simple as "betting to win will always be the best bet so bet that". They can still bet last in other pools and they will be overcompensating for the loss of not betting last in one of the highest volume pools. Making matters more complicated is that everyone else they are betting against - us - is also now conditioned to be betting as late as possible.
