So here is some of my thinking while I have a few minutes on why I think using the final time value of time is better than using seperate values at each call, though I fully admit TimeformUS is doing the latter.
I'll use a made up scale and say one length (time) is equal to 2 points at the finish of a six furlong dirt race. If you use different values at the pace calls, I'll use 6 points after the 1/4 mile and 4 points at the 1/2 mile. These are made up but I'm doing it for simplicity and they aren't too far from what the math would show the differences to be between the methods.
Assume a race is run and the winner Horse A goes wire to wire and runs a 100 at all three calls. Horse B chases him around the track two lengths behind at each point of call. Horse C chases same as B but 5 lengths behind at each call.
Value varies at each call:
Code:
Horse A 100 100 100
Horse B 88 92 96
Horse C 70 80 90
__________________________________________________ ___________
Now, how does this look when value matches final time at each call:
Code:
Horse A 100 100 100
Horse B 96 96 96
Horse C 90 90 90
I prefer the latter because to me it shows what is really happening in the race, the horses are running evenly after the 1st call. The first method gives the illusion, at least to me, that Horses B and C are running faster the last 1/4 mile than the winner, when in reality they are running the exact same speed.
The other way I look at it is like this. Horse B had to make up two lengths after the 1st call. Is that better represented as 12 points or 4 points? Twelve seems pretty extreme for me for a horse only two lengths behind. There is plenty to time to make up the gap and that is the difference for me, horses aren't racing to the first call. Pretending they are is simply not how races are run, even in a dirt sprint. As races get longer it becomes more pronounced, and even more so on synthetic and turf.
I have plenty more, but curious to hear what people think so far.
