Quote:
Originally Posted by Franco Santiago
For those of you that are frustrated by lower odds after the gate opens, I ask you to do this: track 100 of your win bets and note whether or not the odds go up or the odds go down after the gate opens. Then, I ask you to review two sets of your bets: those in which the odds went down and those in which the odds went up.
I can almost guarantee that your ROI on the wagers in which your odds went down will be higher than the your ROI on the wagers in which your odds went up (as well as your win percentage). In fact, I will bet that you are losing a LOT of money on those bets in which your odds went up.
After you do this and you discover that what I am saying is true, you will be HOPING and PRAYING that your odds flash lower when the horses are on the backstretch. But don't take it from me....do yourself a favor and keep track as I suggested above. This might be the greatest advice anyone has ever given you in this game. I know that it totally enlightened me and never bitched about my odds going down again.
Best to you,
Franco
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I am sure you are correct. That however is not consolation to most. If they are watching the race live not paying attention to the final odds and they have bet $50 to win on a 3-1 shot and then watch him win, they think won $150. When they look at the tote board and see $5.20 and they only actually made $80, it is pretty frustrating. When the vast majority of horses they are betting that actually do win are paying less than they expected because of the late money, thoughts of the game be rigged start to enter their head. Add in the fact that most of the time their horse loses the odds went higher or stayed the same and they become more suspicious. It is a very poor optic for the game.
You are looking at it from the perspective that if I want to make money on a play in general, I know I have a lot better chance of that happening if the smart money validates my play. One can also look at it from a perspective that when I win I usually get paid less than expected when I made the bet. I don't have that problem if I am playing poker, or betting sports or even playing casino games but in racing I do. Now maybe they can come up with a new kind of conditional betting where your bet only stays in the pool if the odds go down from post time to off time.
I would not hold my breath waiting for that option.
