Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
This is a mathematical fallacy. I've tried to explain it in the past.
First, I agree the CAW betting makes the pools more efficient because they are so good. That's a problem for everyone (including them) because there are fewer overlays or even horses that are close to break even. I'm not even really complaining about it. It's a free market. It just sucks for people putting a lot of work into trying to win.
Second, the money for their rebates has ZERO impact on my profits and losses over and above that greater efficiency.
If the track take is 16%, the public is going to lose 16% plus breakage regardless of whether the CAWs are in the pool or not and regardless of whether they get no rebates or large rebates. It's a separate budget that cuts into the track's/ADW's bottom line not the public's.
The most you can argue is that if they weren't giving large rebates to the CAWs, they could lower the take a tiny amount across the board instead and keep their bottom line steady.
Are they better off giving rebates based on volume or operating with a lower take across the board?
That's a business decision.
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Mathematical fallacy?
I was following this stuff more a few years back when I actually cared. But everything I read back then lead me to believe my numbers are somewhat accurate. I remember posting about what I heard in a CHRB meeting and how much they were giving out in rebates to players that bet x amount of dollars. I am speaking primarily win pool. The exotics are a different animal with some players in some pools at some tracks receiving ridiculously high rebates making those pools a donation for any non rebated player. Different subject.
No matter whether there are rebates are not, smarter bettors make it harder for other bettors. Dumber bettors make it easier for other bettors. Why do horse players like touristy tracks with big pools? Dumb money. Even back in the day (when some folks were betting numbers and colors and jockey and public selectors galore) people preferred playing into big weekend crowds with a lot more novice money in the pools. On weekdays, the serious, sharp players made up a much higher percentage of the betting pools than they did on weekends.
Do not think about the fact that rebates are coming from adw's. Irrelevant. Think about what the long term net (in the actual pool) is for these caws in the win pool at a major circuit. My guess is that they comprise about 35% of the pool (it could be 25% it could be 40%+) whatever it is the fact that there is dumb money in the pools on some days should be fairly meaningless since they (the Caws) can bet as much as they want to negate it. My guess is that whatever the percentage is, it probably grows each year, which will only make things tougher on other players. If I am correct with 35% of the pool working at -3 % then explained in my post above the other 65% is losing a lot more than the track take. There is no way to escape that. I don't know why you think there is?
Don't get me wrong, if they eliminated rebates forever, these caws would still make money, they would still hurt other players and they will still iron out a lot of value from the pool. But they would have to leave themselves a profit margin. Without rebates they cannot drive horses below fair value and make money. They would have to leave horses
above fair value to make money. Read the article that formula posted. Everyday player making money goes caw and suddenly he is betting exponentially more. ITP, says the same thing in his podcasts. These are players that were winning before rebates. You give them rebates it becomes a different game. They bet much more and with a different objective and they knock out just about all the value from the pools.
Thus the game becomes what the game has become. It goes nowhere, Caws bet more everyday players bet less and unless some steps are taken and this one by NYRA is a small baby step, the game will likely dry up as another poster posted above. Eliminate the caw money, and look at todays total betting and compare it to 1997 adjusting for inflation. Make any excuse you want, bottom line is bad policy makes for bad economy. Whether it is the actual economy or the horse racing economy. Now you can be like ITP and claim that tv touts giving bad pick 4 plays is the reason the game is failing (while cashing in on big rebates) or you can use some logic and realize that the system is broken and basically set up to transfer money from the least informed and least rebated to the most informed and most rebated. By the way I am not saying I disagree with some of ITP's points, I am saying that if you don't fix the game, it doesn't matter.
Regarding the end of your post. There is only one way to make this game successful. Eliminate all rebates and make the WPS takeout 8%, the exotic takeout (double/exactas)10-12%, and super exotic (tris/supers, multi picks...) 15%. These are numbers that will make the sport comparable to its main competition. But no major track is willing to take the risk or make the leap. So the entire industry is on borrowed time. At least NYRA is trying something. I don't believe it is too late to fix the game, because gambling is so popular right now. But the game has to be fairly priced or other gambling games will just crush this sport. It is just so futile to try to market the sport when it is priced so poorly. Folks might stick around for a week, a month a year, but unless they are really good, they will move over to the competition. It is just inevitable.
