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Originally Posted by NoCal Boy
I have to disagree with your macro opinion about 2009 for the racing industry. While I believe there will be a continuing decline in on track attendance and on track handle numbers, I expect 2009 to be a better year than 2008 for certain parts of the racing industry. Open access to the major national ADWs is basically here. I expect the Florida signal deals with Youbet and likely TVG to be announced later this week. Oaklawn is next up shortly thereafter. CA has open access now. I highly doubt the Kentucky Derby and Preakness will be restricted this year given the signal deals being cut now. I suspect the Breeders Cup will be better received in 2009 in terms of handle now that Pro Ride seems to be holding up and there will be plenty of information about it.
The key for many of these tracks is access to wagering outlets and field sizes. The former seems to be coming around with access to the major ADWs being assured to virtually all tracks. The latter is a work in process, but as purses get supplemented with a little better fee structure for purses, my guess is field sizes will also start to increase at the major tracks.
Hopefully PTC will obtain Tracknet content. Hopefully PTC will get into CA. Hopefully PTC will get NYRA. Unfortunately, although PTC has been able to obtain TVG content during 2008, TVG is about to be sold in Q1 of 2009 and its exclusivities are basically done after Turfway ends in March. If the purchaser is CDI, then will PTC even get what little content is available through TVG? Hopefully the answer is a resounding Yes, but CDI is a tough nut to crack.
Magna will get reorganized in some fashion during 2009. TVG will be sold. Youbet might go private. CDI will be the home of the Kentucky Derby and we will see from there. How PTC fits in all of this is open to question if CDI is the dominant player controlling content. However, I do believe Twinspires and Youbet (and more than likely whomever is the acquiror of TVG) will do very well in 2009 as the industry takes a noticeable shift to online and mobile wagering. Xpressbet is a crapshoot as I doubt many large players will want to drive much handle through a reorganized Magna subsidiary, regardless of player trust accounts.
Finally, I see little to no appetite for any reductions in takeout. Justified or not, it will not happen.
Merry Christmas
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even with all the other issues racing has , I think you are way way way underestimating the general economic fallout on handle.
if overall they stay close to last year it will be a miracle.
Also on field sizes , something tells me we are going to see some big owners/groups drop out in the next year or two, not to mention the smaller guys who can't make it.
We will see.
