Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
But again, when a race is over, I still don't know whether I was right or wrong regardless of the outcome, the trip got etc..
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Clearly we view things differently. Unless you get a poor trip, ride, etc once a race is over you know if you were right or wrong. The people that thought Princess Noor was too slow to win were right. Case closed. She had a clean trip and didn’t have it at the end.
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I understood the thinking going in and can see the results just like you can.
Where we differ is that I thought the probability that she could jump up was higher than the consensus of the more experienced handicappers I was reading on Twitter and elsewhere, but not as high as making her 1.90 -1.
I was probably more in the middle of the "toss her she's to slow" crowd and the people that were arguing "the figures don't matter you can see how good she is".
I also don't consider the result significant when it comes to those probabilities. It was one event in a lifetime that is sure to contain similar problems where many don't jump up but some do.
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For me personally this is where you lose me and this is why I think you’re playing both sides. It’s a black and white thing in my eyes and you’re saying it’s gray. Clearly we won’t ever agree but I think you’re overthinking everything.
