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Obviously feel plays a huge part in everything we do in this game. But, to me from a standpoint of logic, probably the best way to achieve value in the games current state is
Look for value oriented trips, angles, situations
Your competition has the same if not better information than you do. They get big rebates so they can knock a horse down to fair value and still make money. The reason that this is of the most value to you as a player imo:
the caw may not agree with your theories or even be privy to what you see. However, I think in aggregate over a large number of races the caw will tend to find your horses (assuming they are worth finding), but the public won't.. So the chances of getting a great win/exacta price on your horse is a little dubious (although it happens). But that horse being a great key in the multi legs or even the trifectas and superfectas I think are good because I think so much of the public will miss the horse entirely and that they will provide value in those pools.
This is all theory by me of course.
Not a huge fan of the beating the bad favorite plan. The distinction between over bet, live and bad can be tricky and is more of a feel thing. Sometimes you just hate the favorite and you have to try to beat him. But I assume that 3/5's still do better than 4/5's who do better than 1-1 etc in the roi dept. so to try to get rich betting against horses who do best from an roi standpoint seems like a questionable approach. The days of me lining races making a horse 9/5 seeing him at 3/5 and licking my lips in anticipation (trying to beat him) are long gone. As much as my ego would love to tell me that I am the smartest guy playing, the results, show the 3/5's win about as often as a 3/5 should win statistically whether I make him 4/5, 9/5, 3-1, or 6-1.
Where I think there is value in racing is taking a stand against horses that are maybe in the 5/2 + range. If they are 4-1 on down to 5/2 they eat up a good chunk of the betting money and I do have success tossing these horses at least in Harness racing. It is a feel thing and you have to be selective, but when I post analysis you will see me make comments like if so and so wins I will be tearing up my tickets or I will take a stand against so and so or so. Most of these horses I can keep out of the exacta and basically nullify much of the take in the win/exacta pools. When there price starts diving under 2-1 my past data indicates that horses will win as often as the final odds dictate.
Obvious you as a player cannot model my performance in harness racing to your performance in thoroughbreds, but you can keep tabs on horses you thing are good horse to play against. See if there is a final odds group or any other characteristics (over 2-1 for me in harness) where you are very effective at tossing horses and minimizing the track take. Because in all honesty, if every horse in a race is a contender with no sound reason to play against them this game becomes a lot harder to beat especially if you are not getting real rebates. But if you catch a race where there are 2 horses that you want to play against and another horse who has an angle you know the public is likely to miss you have a pretty good betting opportunity.
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