Game Winner
1/09: 3f - 35.20 - Bullet
1/20: 4f - 48.60
1/30: 5f - 1:03.40
2/08: 5f - 1:00.02
Improbable
1/09: 3f - 38.00
1/14: 4f - 49.20
1/20: 4f - 48.00
1/26: 5f - 1:02.00
2/01: 5f - 58.40 - Bullet
2/08: 6f - 1:15.00
My interest is in Improbable. Game Winner is his nearest competitor so I’ve been following him closely to see how he matches up. Last year, except after a race, Game Winner worked every 5.68 days. This year he is working every 9.6 days. Why are his works so far apart? What is Baffert thinking here? Aren’t two-year-olds supposed to be getting stronger as three-year-olds? Why only four works compared to six works by Improbable?
After watching the video of his work on 1/20, I thought he was struggling; he doesn’t appear to be running with the élan of a two-year-old champion. I noticed in his
1/30 work what appears to be a problem with his right front - it wings out; didn’t see it before, saw it with his left front, but not his right.
In his
2/8 work, why is he working in company with Speed Freak, the same horse that worked in company with Coliseum? Why did Baffert send Speed Freak out front and have Game Winner play catch up? What is Baffert trying to figure out here? Take a look and compare the reins, plenty of slack . . . why isn’t he engaging? Has he lost the competitive drive and will to win he demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile? What are those two marks at the top of his right forearm; weren't there on 1/30. Particularly troubling is in deep stretch he gets off his right lead and switches to his left; unprofessional for such a professional. “He got a little tired at the end,” Baffert told drf.com. “The track is a little deep.”
There is too much evidence that premature racing in pressure situations causes a downward-spiral for racing’s child prodigies. Surely, each trainer of a two-year-old wonder will have his own unique explanation for the subsequent aborted stardom and decline. Whether these reasons or causes has to do with condition problems, loss of interest in racing, or more esoteric excuses, premature racing activity will often play a major role in catalyzing a quick decline for a would be star. For handicappers, “reasons” are not always accessible and are rarely necessary. The pattern in the past performances is clear: a majority of two-year-old champs will have seen their best days before they become mature “adults.” (Cramer, 1990)
His next few works are critical. Who will go in the San Felipe and the Santa Anita? “Whoever is ready to run that week, then they’ll run”, Baffert said recently . . .
